Economic analysts warn that a 40% ‘circumvention’ tax and new strategic levies on machinery could derail Thailand’s recent export growth to the United States.

Despite a recent surge in trade with the United States, Thailand’s economic outlook for 2026 is overshadowed by two looming “high-stakes” risks.

Supanutt Sasiwuttiwat, a leading researcher at the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI), warns that new American trade enforcement could see Thai goods slapped with tariffs as high as 40%.

The primary threat stems from “Circumvention Tariffs.” Washington is increasingly suspicious of the correlation between rising Chinese imports into Thailand and Thailand’s subsequent export spike to the US.

Analysts fear the US may impose a strict “60% local content” rule; failing to meet this could result in Thai-made goods being classified as Chinese-origin, triggering a 40% penalty rate.

Furthermore, the US is expected to expand “Section 232” measures to protect its own strategic industries.

This move specifically threatens Thailand’s medium-to-large truck and parts sector—an export market worth approximately 7 billion baht—as well as electrical machinery containing steel or aluminium, which could face duties of up to 50%.

Current Performance: A Fragile Electronics Boom

These warnings come on the heels of a surprisingly strong performance in late 2025.

Between August and November, Thai exports to the US grew by nearly 30%, largely buoyed by a massive demand for electronics to power American data centres.

Specifically, exports of portable computers surged nearly 14-fold, while network equipment and computer components more than doubled.

However, the TDRI notes that this growth is precarious, as these very categories are the most likely to be pulled into the next round of “product-specific” US tax brackets.

The Decline of Targeted Sectors

While electronics are currently thriving, other sectors are already feeling the pinch of prior US protectionism:

Solar Panels: Following anti-dumping duties of up to 972%, exports have plummeted by over 80% since early 2025.

Tyres: Subject to a 25% levy, export volumes have effectively halved year-on-year.

Hard Disk Drives (HDDs): Even without specific tariffs, this sector has contracted by 17% due to shifting global demand.