Thailand’s property market in 2025–2026 is entering what experts describe as its most challenging test in a decade. Economic and real estate specialists say the sector is clearly in a correction phase, with any recovery expected to be gradual. They forecast the slowdown could persist for another two to three years, as current sales remain far below pre-Covid levels (2019), when Greater Bangkok recorded around 120,000 units a year.

A key warning sign is nationwide ownership transfers in 2025, projected at around 300,000 units—the lowest level in seven years—down from a “normal” pace of roughly 400,000 units annually. New project launches in Greater Bangkok have also fallen significantly, down more than 33%, or about 20,000 units compared with the previous year.

Luxury detached homes and condos flash oversupply warnings

Segment-level data suggests the most concerning area is luxury detached houses priced 25–50 million baht. Over the past one to two years, developers launched too many units, leaving an accumulated unsold stock of about 3,000 units. Based on current absorption rates, it could take five to six years to clear the backlog. Broader economic weakness spreading into exports and industrial business is also weighing directly on high-income buyers in industrial estate areas.